Iowa State University’s Ag Decision Maker website is a great resource to evaluate ARC-CO and PLC.

As a reminder, PLC is  triggered if the Marketing Year Average Price is lower than the Effective Reference Price. The Effective Reference Price is $3.70 for corn and $8.40 for soybeans. ARC-CO is triggered if the actual county revenue falls below the guaranteed county revenue.

Below is a chart I put together using ISU’s Ag Decision Maker website . This gives you a quick reference for the counties in our area. The left side of the chart provides a breakdown of ARC-CO’s Net Revenue Guarantee by county. The right side provides a sensitivity analysis of an ACR-CO payment if the corn price would average $4.

For example: Butler County’s guaranteed revenue is $694.15 per acre. If corn price averages $4, a Butler County average yield below 173.5 bushel per acre would trigger an ARC-CO payment. The probability of a yield below 173.5 bushels per acre is 20% given the last 10 years of yield history in the county, 25% given the last 20 years, and 50% given the last 30 years.

 

Corn

Yield: Olympic Average Trend-Adjusted Yields, 2015-19

Price: ARC-CO will use $3.70 reference price, because it is higher than the Olympic marketing year average price $3.51.

Benchmark Revenue: 2021 ARC-CO Benchmark Revenue

Guarantee: 2021 ARC-CO Net Revenue Guarantee (86% of Benchmark)

 

Soybeans

Yield: Olympic Average Trend-Adjusted Yields, 2015-19

Price: ARC-CO will use $8.95 Olympic marketing year average price, because it is higher than the $8.40 reference price.

Benchmark Revenue: 2021 ARC-CO Benchmark Revenue

Guarantee: 2021 ARC-CO Net Revenue Guarantee (86% of Benchmark)

 

You can review all counties and input different scenarios into the sensitivity analysis on ISU’s Ag Decision Maker website. I would encourage you to review your elections and visit with your FSA office asap.

Farm Bill Annual Elections start in 2021